Climate Scenario Design
We calibrate physical and transition pathways to your own exposures.
Banking Climate
Risk Modelling
What warming and the move away from carbon do to the value of your book, quantified in the models you already run and disclosed.
Climate Risk Deliverables
Transition Risk Modelling
We quantify the effect of the transition away from carbon on credit quality and capital.
Physical Risk Modelling
We model physical damage to your lending exposures and the property securing them.
Climate Reporting
We produce the climate disclosures your investors and supervisors require.
Banking Case Studies
Banking
Independent validation of a Pillar 2A concentration add-on
A European bank needed to know that the capital it holds against concentrated lending would stand up to scrutiny, so it asked us for an independent view of the model behind the number.
Banking
Redeveloping every IFRS 9 model across two portfolios
A UK lender needed every model in its IFRS 9 expected credit loss suite rebuilt, at the point when the team that had built them was no longer there.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Climate pathways are choices rather than data, so what matters is whether they are calibrated to your own exposures and documented as judgements. At Gini we calibrate physical and transition pathways from the NGFS and CBES frameworks to the book you actually hold, quantify the effect on credit quality and capital, and write the TCFD disclosure that has to explain the result.
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Gini starts from the published pathways and recalibrates them to your exposures, then translates them into the macroeconomic variables your provisioning models already consume. Physical damage is modelled against the individual property securing the lending rather than a regional average. Transition risk is quantified where the carbon exposure sits, which for most UK lenders concentrates in a few sectors.
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Yes. The common finding is a scenario that is severe in the narrative and mild by the time it reaches the model, because the translation into economic variables lost the severity. At Gini we test that translation, report where the pathway and the modelled outcome disagree, and quantify what the scenario would do if the transmission were built properly.
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It should. Gini generates the TCFD narrative and the quantitative tables from the model output rather than assembling them by hand, so the figure in the disclosure reconciles to the scenario run that produced it. Where a required disclosure rests on data you do not yet hold, we say so in the document rather than estimating quietly.
